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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still