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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd